DOI:https://doi.org/10.3232/GCG.2019.V13.N2.01

LA PRODUCCIÓN DE ACERO EN MÉXICO, UN ANÁLISIS ECONOMÉTRICO

Eugenio Guzmán-Soria, María Teresa de la Garza-Carranza, Samuel Rebollar-Rebollar, Juvencio Hernández-Martínez, Nicolás Callejas-Juárez

Resumen

Determinar la elasticidad del precio propio de la producción mexicana de acero, así como cuantificar el nivel de impacto del precio internacional sobre el precio mayorista en México. En este trabajo estimamos un modelo de ecuaciones simultáneas con información anual de 1980 a 2017, integrada por 3 ecuaciones de regresión. A corto y largo plazo, la producción de acero en México responde de manera inelástica (0.0425 y 0.2419%) ante cambios del 1% en el precio propio. El precio internacional del acero es el precio mayorista en México a un nivel de 0.05, por cada cambio porcentual unitario en la primera.

Vistas: 121
Descargas PDF (English): 144

 

Referencias


CANACAR (Cámara Nacional del Autotransporte de Carga/National Chamber of Cargo Autotransport). (2018), “Statistics and indicators of cargo transportation”, Recovered from: http://www.canacar.com.mx/ [Accessed April 12, 2018].

CANACERO (Cámara Nacional de la Industria del Hierro y del Acero/National Chamber of the Iron and Steel Industry). (2008), “Development of a strategic action plan for the steel sector in Mexico”, Recovered from: http://www.protlcuem.gob.mx/swb/work/models/economia/Resource/1028/.../Canacero.ppt [Accessed January 22, 2017].

CANACERO (Cámara Nacional de la Industria del Hierro y del Acero/National Chamber of the Iron and Steel Industry). (Several years), National and international prices of steel and its inputs. Steel in numbers. Mexico City, Mexico.

Comtois, C.; Slack, B. (2016), Dynamic Determinants in Global Iron Ore Supply Chain. Interuniversity Research Centre on Enterprise Networks, Logistics and Transportation, Vol. 06, pp. 1-29.

CFE (Comisión Federal de Electricidad/Federal Electricity Commission). (1980-2017), “General electrical tariffs in high voltage-Historical”, Mexico City, Mexico.

Fu, X.; Ueland, S. M.; Olivetti, E. (2017), “Econometric modeling of recycled copper supply”, Resources, Conservation and Recycling, Vol. 122, pp. 219–226. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2017.02.012

Gajdzik, B.; Gawlik, R.; Skoczypiec, S. (2018), “Forecasting-Scenario-Heuristic method proposal for assessment of feasibility of steel production scenarios in Poland – Managerial implications for production engineering”, Archives of Civil and Mechanical Engineering, Vol. 18, pp. 1651–1660.

Giuliodori, D.; Rodriguez, A. (2015), “Analysis of the stainless Steel market in the EU, China and US using co-integration and VECM”, Resources Policy, Vol. 44, pp. 12–24. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2014.11.006

Gujarati, D. N.; Porter, C. D. (2010), “Econometrics”, McGraw-Hill Interamerican, Mexico City.

INEGI (Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía/National Institute of Statistic and Geography). (2017), “Economy-Economic sectors-Mining-Mining and metallurgical production”, Recovered from: http://www3.inegi.org.mx/sistemas/temas/default.aspx?s=est&c=23824 [Accessed November 20, 2017].

INEGI-BIE (Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía-Banco de Información Económica /National Institute of Statistic and Geography-Economic Information Bank). (2018), Prices and Inflation. Recovered from: http://www.inegi.org.mx/sistemas/bie/ [Accessed March 22, 2018].

Labson, B. S.; Gooday, P.; Manson, A. (1995), “China's Emerging Steel Industry and its Impact on the World Iron Ore and Steel Market”, Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics [ABARE-Economics], Research Report 95.4, Canberra, Australia.

Malanichev, A.; Vorobyev, P. (2011), “Forecast of global steel prices”, Studies on Russian Economic Development, Vol. 22, Num. 3, pp. 304–311.

Nielsen, H. (2017), “Productive efficiency in the iron and steel sector under state planning: The case of China and former Czechoslovakia in a comparative perspective”, Applied Energy, Vol. 185, pp. 1732–1743.

Priovolos, T. (1987), “An econometrics model of the iron ore industry” World Bank Staff Commodity Working Papers, The World Bank, Washington, D.C.

Samuelson, P. A.; Nordhaus, W. D. (2010), “Microeconomics with applications to Latin America”, McGraw-Hill, Mexico.

SAS Institute Inc. (2002), “The SAS System for Windows 9.0”, Cary, N.C. USA.

SCT-DGTFM (Secretaría de Comunicaciones y Transportes-Dirección General de Transporte Ferroviario y Multimodal/Ministry of Communications and Transportation-General Directorate of Rail and Multimodal Transport). (2018). “Freight rail tariffs in Mexico. Recovered from: https://www.gob.mx/sct/acciones-y-programas/direccion-general-de-desarrollo-ferroviario-y-multimodal [Accessed 22 March, 2018)]

SE (Secretaría de Economía/ Ministry of Economy). (2012), “Monograph of the steel sector of Mexico, 2011”, General Directorate of Heavy Industries and High Technology, Directorate of Metalworking Industry, Recovered from: http://www.2006-2012.economia.gob.mx/files/Monografia_Sector_Acero.pdf [Accessed May 15, 2016].

Wooldridge, J. M. (2009), “Introduction to econometrics: A modern approach”, CENGAGE Learning, Mexico.

WSA (World Steel Association). (2018), “Steel Statistical Yearbook, 1980-2017”, Recovered from: https://www.worldsteel.org/steel-by-topic/statistics/steel-statistical-yearbook-.html [Accessed January 25, 2018].

Xuan, Y.; Yue, Q. (2016), “Forecast of steel demand and the availability of depreciated steel scrap in China”, Resources, Conservation and Recycling, Vol. 109, pp. 1–12. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2016.02.003

Yang, W.; Shi, J.; Qiao, H; Shao, Y; Wang, S. (2017), “Regional technical efficiency of Chinese Iron and steel industry based on bootstrap network data envelopment analysis”, Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Vol. 57, pp. 14-24.





Con el mecenazgo de
Universia
Avda. de Cantabria, s/n - 28660, Boadilla del Monte
Madrid, España